HOT BARN REPORT: So how bad is it? Special Monday Edition with Karina Jones

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HOT BARN REPORT: So how bad is it? Special Monday Edition with Karina Jones

THEE Hot Barn Report!
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Welcome to America’s Hot Barn Report now heard coast to coast and border to border

It is official, we have just confirmed our 12th reporting barn for the big fall run. We now blanket the great Northern beef belt from Motely, Minnesota to Torrington, Wyoming.

You’re not dreamin’! I’m coming to you with a special MONDAY edition of the Hot Barn Report!

We knew it was coming. I have become increasingly interested in it because for me it continues to affirm how disconnected our cattle market is from the fundamentals. But, I do think that with in that context it reveals other truths.

Last week the USDA cattle inventory report came up for air. Reuters reported, “The U.S. beef cow herd dropped to its lowest level since 1962, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed last week. Declining supplies of cattle are expected to keep meat prices high for consumers.”

“We’re going to be dealing with some sharp beef-supply declines for the next three years straight and therefore higher beef prices,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for commodity broker Allendale, who warns, “There will be no help in the coming years for the consumer.”

So how bad is it? There were 28.9 million beef cows as of Jan. 1, down 3.6% from a year earlier, the USDA said. It was the smallest herd size for that date in 61 years, according to U.S. government data.

Cattle producers are not expected make “meaningful progress” in rebuilding the U.S. herd until 2025 at the earliest, Rabobank said. Meanwhile, restaurants, retailers and importers will increasingly compete for limited supplies of U.S. beef, the firm added.”

2 observations come to mind after reading that news. #1. How will said restaurants and retailers even know if they are buying U.S. beef? Great argument to get S. 52 The American Beef Labeling Act passed. Secondly, you would think with these tightening cattle supplies we would be seeing more aggressive trading in the live fat cattle market, but that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. We know that carcass weights are tumbling, so cattle must be current but we don’t seem to be seeing packer panic buying. Maybe because they continue to vertically integrate the supply chain or maybe because they can still fill their freezers with imported beef to pass on to completely unsuspecting consumers. So, I guess that would be reason #2 to pass S. 52!

Analysts and the common cattle producers are agreeing on one thing. No matter how much moisture we get, until this industry starts penciling in the black, the idea of rebuilding this nation’s cowherd seems to be a romantic notion, not a reality.

These Diamond Dozen Hot Barns believe in the American cattle industry: Stockmens Livestock, Lemmon Livestock, North Platte Stockyards, St. Onge/Newell, Platte Livestock Market, Tri County Stockyards, Torrington Livestock, Creighton Livestock Market, Bassett Livestock Auction, Mobridge Livestock, Ogallala Livestock Auction Market, and Presho Livestock. Catch them all on


U.S. Senator John Thune (R-S.D.), a longtime member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) reintroduced the American Beef Labeling Act, legislation that would reinstate mandatory country of origin labeling (MCOOL) for beef. [READ MORE]

Get the latest beef industry facts, statistics and stories showcasing the real ways your Checkoff dollars drive demand for beef here at home and around the globe. Visit


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🔥North Platte Stockyards – Sales on TUESDAY
🔥Ogallala Livestock Auction Market – Sales on WEDNESDAY
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🔥Presho Livestock Auction – Sales on THURSDAY & MONTHLY horse sale
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