MANKATO, Minn. — The USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report released on July 10 projected a decrease in the projected 2026-27 corn ending stocks, based on reduced beginning stocks due to the better-than-expected corn demand for the current 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on Aug. 31, 2026. The latest WASDE Report also showed much lower anticipated U.S. wheat production in 2026, which is expected to result in a significant reduction in the 2026-27 wheat carryover levels. Futures prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reacted favorably following the WASDE Report. However, some of the strength in the futures prices may be due to the positive grain export news in recent weeks, along with the significant hot, dry weather pattern that is expected to impact the Midwest and Plains States in the last half of July.
Following are some highlights from the July 10 WASDE Report:
Corn
The most encouraging news in the July 10 WASDE Report was the decrease of 2025-26 corn ending stocks by 125 million bushels, which was largely driven by an anticipated increase in corn exports during the current marketing year. The estimated 2025-26 corn ending stocks are now estimated at 2.02 billion bushels, which is still quite large. Following that adjustment in the final projected 2025-26 ending stocks, the projected 2026-27 ending stocks are now projected at 1.79 billion bushels, which was a decline of 170 million bushels from the June estimate. The 2026-27 ending stocks would be a decrease of 230 million bushels from the projected ending stocks for the current year; however, the carryover would be above the 2024-25 ending stocks of 1.553 billion bushels.
The July 10 WASDE Report estimated the 2026 U.S. planted corn acreage at 95.3 million acres, which matched the acreage in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report. USDA left the projected harvested acres of corn for grain unchanged in the July report at 87.4 million acres. USDA also left the estimated 2026 U.S. corn yield at 183 bushels per acre, which would be below the record average U.S. corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre in 2025. Based on the estimated 2026 corn acreage and yield, the projected 2026 U.S. corn production is 16 billion bushels, which compares to other recent U.S. corn production totals of 17.02 billion bushels in 2025, 14.89 billion bushels in 2024, 15.34 billion bushels in 2023, and 13.65 billion bushels in 2022.
The total corn usage for 2025-26 is estimated at 16.58 billion bushels, which would be an increase of approximately 1.45 billion bushels from the total corn usage for 2024-25. Corn used for ethanol production, corn fed to livestock, and corn export levels in the 2025-26 marketing year are all expected to be increased compared to a year earlier. Total U.S. corn usage for 2026-27 is projected at just over 16.25 billion bushels, with most usage categories at very similar levels to the current projected usage levels in 2025-26.
USDA is projecting 2025-26 market year average (MYA) corn price at $4.15 per bushel, which was the same as the June WASDE Report. USDA is estimating the 2026-27 MYA corn price at $4.40 per bushel, which was also the same as a month earlier. The 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans ends on August 31, 2026 and the marketing year for the 2026 crop year begins on Sept. 1, 2026, and continues through August 31, 2027. The current price projections compare to recent national average corn prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20. CBOT corn futures prices were stronger following the release on the July 10 report, with December 2026 futures closing at $4.61 per bushel., which compares to December futures prices of $4.13 per bushel in 2025 and $4.07 per bushel in 2024, following the July WASDE Report. New crop cash bids for Fall delivery in 2026 in mid-July were slightly over $4.00 per bushel at many locations in the Upper Midwest. There is a large difference in cash corn prices across the region, depending on the local “basis” level compared to the CBOT prices.
Soybeans
Based on the July 10 WASDE Report, USDA is now estimating 2026 U.S. planted soybean acreage at 85.4 million acres, which was a slight increase from the June estimate, which compares to 81.2 million acres in 2025 and 87.3 million acres in 2024. The record national soybean acreage was 89.2 million acres in 2018. The July 10 report projected a U.S. average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2026, which was unchanged from the June report, and matches the record national average yield of 53 bushels per acre in 2025. Total U.S soybean production for 2026 is estimated at just over 4.47 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 213 million bushels from the final U.S. soybean production of 4.262 billion bushels in 2025, and would be close to the record U.S. soybean production of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018.
USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2025-26 at just over 4.28 billion bushels, which is down from just over 4.42 billion bushels of usage in 2024-25. The projected soybean usage for the current marketing year includes an increase of 205 million bushels in the expected soybean crush level, which was offset by a projected decline of 372 million bushels in the soybean export level, compared to a year earlier. USDA is now estimating soybean ending stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31, 2026, at 330 million bushels, which would be very similar to the carryout level of 325 billion bushels in 2024-25. USDA is projecting soybean ending stocks to decline by 20 million bushels to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2026-27 marketing year. The current estimated carryout levels for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years are still well below the large soybean carryover levels that existed from 2018-2020.
USDA is estimating the national MYA soybean price for the 2025-26 marketing year at $10.40 per bushel, which is the same as the June estimate. The July WASDE Report projected the farm-level average MYA soybean price for the 2026-27 marketing year to increase to $11.40 per bushel. The current MYA soybean price projections compare to recent final MYA soybean prices of $10.00 per bushel in 2024-25, $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23; $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. The CBOT November soybean futures price for the 2026 crop closed at $11.91 per bushel following the release of the WASDE report on July 10, which compares to CBOT November futures prices of $10.10 per bushel in 2025 and $10.65 per bushel in 2024 following the July WASDE Report. Cash soybean bids for the Fall of 2026 in the Upper Midwest were near $11.00 per bushel, with higher prices at some soybean processing plants.
Wheat
Total U.S. wheat production for 2026 is estimated at nearly 1.536 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of 23 per cent, or 449 million bushels, from the 2025 production of 1.985 billion bushels. Other recent U.S. wheat production levels include 1.98 billion bushels in 2024 and near 1.8 billion bushels in 2023. The estimated average U.S. wheat yield for 2026 is 47.9 bushels per acre, which was increased slightly from the June WASDE report, and compares to recent average wheat yields of 53.3 bushels per acre in 2025, 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024 and 48.7 bushels per acre in 2023. The total wheat usage level for 2026-27 is projected at 1.874 billion bushels, which compares to usage levels of 2.044 billion bushels on 2025-26, 1.97 billion bushels in 2024-25, and 1.81 billion bushels in 2023-24. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2026-27 are now estimated at 722 million bushels, compared to 920 million bushels in 2025-26, 855 million bushels in 2024-25, and 696 million bushels in 2023-24.
The 2026-27 USDA marketing year for wheat and other small grains runs from June 1, 2026 through May 31, 2027. The July WASDE Report estimated the 2026-27 MYA wheat price at $6.00 per bushel, which was unchanged from the price estimate in the June Report. The MYA wheat price estimate for 2026-27 compares to recent final MYA wheat prices of $5.06 per bushel in 2025-26, $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, and $8.83 per bushel in 2022-23. The current cash wheat price bids are improved from the low wheat price levels that existed in 2024 and 2025, but are still well below the solid wheat prices in 2022 and 2023.
— Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst