THEE Hot Barn Report!
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Welcome to America’s Hot Barn Report now heard coast to coast and border to border
It is official, we have just confirmed our 12th reporting barn for the big fall run. We now blanket the great Northern beef belt from Motely, Minnesota to Torrington, Wyoming.
The Hot Barn Report is a fast paced and entertaining daily program covering the latest news and trends in the cattle industry, hosted by Monte James, a veteran rodeo announcer, radio host and industry expert! The Hot Barn Report features interviews with industry leaders, market analysts, producers and ranchers and features True Price Discovery from salebarns in Great Northern Beef Belt and across the nation.
Ghosts, goblins, and day traders….we’ve got a lot of spooky business to cover today on this special Friday edition of the Hot Barn Report.
Last week’s cattle on feed report had the future’s market scared and seeing spirits apparently. What was once intended to be a risk management tool has tried to hijack the cash market and create cattle market chaos.
I, along with all of you, are hoping that if the cash market can keep it’s head on straight and focus on the fundamentals, we can regain what was lost this last week and then some. So let’s take a look at those facts.
The USDA latest Cattle on Feed report said, “Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on Oct. 1, 2023. The inventory was 1% above Oct. 1, 2022. Making this the second-highest Oct. 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.” This sent shockwaves to the futures market that does not live in rural America. Does not feed cattle for a living. Does not market at their local hot barn. And basically, they react off knee-jerk assumptions all the time.
The inventory report also had some other key fundamental information like heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.64 million head, up 1% from 2022. This only increases the long-term pressure to the domestic cattle herd inventory. It isn’t bouncing back anytime soon folks.
Drought conditions and a favorable cash market has understandably brought this year’s calf crop to town earlier than analysts have anticipated. So, no, we do not have cattle magically dropping out of the sky, they just hit the auction block and went to the feedlot in the 3rd quarter instead of the anticipated 4th quarter. There are still a lot of adjustments that could be made to this storyline. In addition, one must wonder how the importation of Mexican feeder cattle has contributed to this more robust than expected cattle on feed scenario.
I’m not sure how much longer packers can continue slow chain speeds. The holiday season is on the horizon, and we need to put some beef in the cooler. Carcass weights have continued to lighten throughout the 3rd quarter, in part because of the higher volume of heifer slaughter. We are going to need to meet, no pun intended, beef demand, unless the unthinkable happens and we just decide to ramp up imports ahead of the higher forecasts. I mean, it could happen. The powers that be try to throw a wrench in the plan anytime we start gaining market momentum.
I will dive into the latest import and export data in the weeks to come, but that is all I have time for today. Have a great holiday weekend and if you plan on celebrating Halloween early, stay safe out there! We will be celebrating with some Hocus Pocus Punch here on the Jones Ranch! Want the recipe? You can find it on the Your Ag Network App or Website!
It is prime cattle marketing time and we represent some of the best barns in the business. Contact a Hot Barn today to discuss your cattle marketing needs. Stockmens Livestock, Lemmon Livestock, North Platte Stockyards, St. Onge/Newell, Platte Livestock Market, Tri County Stockyards, Torrington Livestock, Creighton Livestock Market, Bassett Livestock Auction, Mobridge Livestock, Ogallala Livestock Auction Market, and Presho Livestock. Catch them all on CattleUSA.com.
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