Welcome to the Friday edition of the HOT BARN REPORT
Heard ONLY on American radio stations across the nation and online at hotbarnreport.com!
Karina Jones, Field Director for R-Calf USA joins us each Friday from her ranch in the heart of Nebraska covering new and important cattle industry news and policy.
Santa, all I want for Christmas is…. MOISTURE! Okay, if we get 3 feet of snow, you can blame me! Welcome to this special Friday edition of Hot Barn Report.
It has been a while since we analyzed cattle inventory numbers (Click for full report) on the HBR. But I thought it was high time to address the issue since words like, “off trend”, “historic”, and “unprecedented” have been used to describe what we are seeing.
The latest cattle on feed report did confirm what those of us in the country already knew. Placement and actual number of head on feed came in lower than expected and expectations were already on the decline. Placements in feedlots during October was 6 percent below 2021. Placements were the lowest for October since the USDA reporting series began in 1996.
The spotlight is on the girls! Heifers on feed is the highest percentage since 2001, while the supply of cattle outside feedlots has continued to decline, down 3.3% from a year earlier, which is the tightest since 2014. As of last Friday, we had already slaughtered 340,000 more cows, YTD, compared to this time last year. We will get a better idea of the trouble the cow/calf sector is in, in January, when the next inventory report comes out.
There are fewer feeder cattle available, fewer being placed, and a larger share of those have been heifers, which means continued tight fed cattle supplies going forward. We trimmed the free loaders from the domestic herd a few years ago, so these cuts are being made to the heart of the herd and some of the most productive ages of cow ranges.
Everyone is watching this bred cow and heifer market with baited breath wondering how hot is going to get but unless Santa brings some badly needed moisture to much of the western country range and feed supplies are already incredible short, leaving little room for expansion or optimism.
Without moisture, I fear that after the first of the year, heifer calves will continue to find their way to a feed bunk instead of coming back to the country. Cattle supplies are already in decline and its not fun having empty pens, so I would think that there might be some aggressive feeders looking to fill bunkspace.
But when you sell your cow factory the truth of the matter is you have to find something else to fill your time and pay your bills. And that is where the saddest part of this scenario plays out. How many producers will be in the cross hairs of this drought and declining financial viability?
Let’s give a shout out to the barns that power this program and are fighting for the American cattle industry: Stockmens livestock, Lemmon livestock, North Platte Stockyards, St. Onge/Newell, Platte Livestock Market, Tri County Stockyards, Torrington Livestock, Creighton Livestock Market, Bassett Livestock Auction, Mobridge Livestock, Ogallala Livestock Auction Market, and Presho Livestock. Catch them all on CattleUSA.com.
See FULL Cattle on Feed Report here
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