DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/08 12:13

DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/08 12:13

   Cash Cattle Markets Hustling Friday Morning 

   Live cattle contracts are trading modestly higher while the lean hog and 
feeder cattle market checks out early for the week. 

By ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

General Comments

   Well it would appear that our Thursday projections were correct - even with 
wishy-washy news lines about the U.S./China trade agreement, lean hogs have 
subsided to trading merely steady to a touch lower, and feeder cattle markets 
have done much of the same giving the live cattle contracts the limelight for 
the day while cash cattle markets roll up their sleeves and push for higher 
prices again this week. December corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and December 
soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 40.81 
points and NASDAQ is up 21.36 points.


   "How tough are ya?," the question of the day. For weeks now live cattle 
contracts have traded higher and cash cattle markets have been able to secure 
$1.00 to $2.00 gains pretty much every week. It seems as if feeders are 
starting to put two and two together and wondering why they have been modest in 
their asking prices and only dared to take $2.00 each week, when slaughter has 
been relatively aggressive, and packers continue to profit from stout boxed 
beef prices. Given that some asking prices in the South are placed at $116 to 
$117, if fats end up selling in that ball park, or close to it, it would be 
fair to say feeders played tough, and feeders played smart this week. Given 
that we know that there is a correction bound to happen any time between now 
and the first of the year, lavish gains in the cash cattle market may be hard 
to secure during the correction. Not to mention that packers have some cattle 
committed for delivery for the weeks of 11/18/19 and 11/25/19 making cash 
cattle advancements tougher in those periods especially given that they also 
dance around the Thanksgiving holiday.  

   December live cattle are trading $0.52 higher at $119.52, February live 
cattle are trading $0.42 higher at $125.27 and April live cattle are up $0.30 
at $126.17. A light to moderate live trade has developed in the South at $114 
to $115, $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern 
live cattle are at trading $114 to $116, steady to $2 higher than last week's 
weighted average basis Nebraska. Some asking prices remain firm around $116 to 
$117 in the South, and $184 to $185 in the North.

   Midday boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.96 ($239.25) and select up 
$0.49 ($213.51) with a light movement of 69 loads (41.28 loads of choice, 17.01 
loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.59 loads of ground beef). 


   Letting cash cattle and live cattle contracts take the show Friday, feeder 
cattle markets are trading mostly mixed though they are appearing to warm up as 
the noon hour approaches. November feeders are up $0.15 at $146.92, January 
feeders are up $0.05 at $145.82 and March feeders are down $0.07 at $145.42. 


   Disgusted there's no clear path to a signed trade agreement and that the 
U.S. has more hogs than normal, the lean hog sector is trading moderately lower 
and looks at the door ready and eager for the weekend. December lean hogs are 
trading $0.30 lower at $64.00, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $73.32 and 
April lean hogs are down $0.32 at $79.82.  

   The projected lean hog index for 11/07/19 is up $0.10 at $60.29, and the 
actual lean hog index for 11/06/19 is $60.19, up $0.03. Hog prices on the 
National Direct Morning Hog Report are unchanged with a weighted average of 
$45.24, ranging from $41.00 to $46.00 on 4,920 head sold and a five-day rolling 
average of $46.24. Pork cutouts totaled 127.43 loads with 106.07 loads of pork 
cuts and 21.36 loads of trim. Pork cutouts values are up $2.10 at $82.74. 

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com 


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